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Predicting the probability of survival with mild or moderate neurological dysfunction after in-hospital cardiopulmonary arrest: The GO-FAR 2 score

      Abstract

      Background

      The Good Outcome Following Attempted Resuscitation (GO-FAR) Score uses pre-arrest factors to predict survival after In-Hospital Cardiac Arrest (IHCA) with minimal neurological dysfunction, (cerebral performance category (CPC) ≤1). Moderate neurological dysfunction (CPC ≤2) may be a more acceptable outcome.

      Objective

      To predict survival after IHCA with mild or moderate neurological dysfunction based on pre-arrest factors.

      Methods

      52,468 patients with IHCA from 2012-2017. Data was divided into training (44%), testing (22%), and validation (34%) sets. Univariate analysis was used to identify variables with >3% difference in survival with CPC ≤2. These variables carried forward to the multivariate logistic regression model. The most parsimonious model that best classified patients as having a very poor (≤5%), below average (≤10%), average (11%–30%), or above average (>30%) likelihood of survival with CPC ≤2 was chosen.

      Results

      Age >85, admission CPC <2, and non-surgical admission were strongly association with poor survival (−12.1%, −14.4%, and −18%, respectively). Nine variables were included in the logistic regression analysis. The final updated model, GO FAR 2, categorized 6.2% of patients with a very poor predicted survival, 24.8% of patients with a below average predicted survival, and 11.3% with above average predicted survival. The observed survival among those with very poor predicted survival was 4.5%.

      Conclusion

      The GO FAR 2 score provides clinicians with a prognostic estimate of the likelihood of a good outcome after IHCA based on pre-arrest patient factors. Future research is required to validate the GO-FAR 2 score.

      Keywords

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